Talking About Fear

Today, in a moment of quiet, I open an email from Amethyst Mahoney, where she talked about fear. Her It inspired me to remember that I need to pick up and live.  In her email today, she was describing her fear of heights and how debilitating it could be, but and not give in she always does things that challenges that fear, whether it be a zip line or rappelling. She puts herself out there and makes herself face it down.

She talks about how her husband tries to make it easier for her, so she doesn’t have to face her fears.  Most of us have tendency to shy away from what scares us.  for many it is a deep anxiety that the world prays on,  Amethyst talks about how the anxiety makes it hard to breath, she gets shaky, starts sweating, and has to fight the urge to buckle under the Fear. So on her vacation to Chicago she describes standing in line waiting to get on the sky deck. She describes how all the things that could go wrong would run through her mind.  finally as the people in front of her were getting off the sky deck how she took a deep breath, reasoned that they had not died that it wasn’t likely she would not either. So she closed her eyes, held onto her husband’s hand and did it anyway.  In the end her panic receded and she had the time of her life. In the end she didn’t want to leave.

I think most of us have some deep-seated fears, I know I do.  Everyone deals with that a little differently.  I tend to plunge right in despite my fear and pretend to be more confident than I am.  In the end I usually find so many rewards, and sometimes I fall on my head.   I get though it.

So let me ask you, what is the true cost of falling victim to our own inner voices and influences of people who try to convince you will fail?  If you are one of those people who Wilts under pressure, what is your fears and doubts costing you? What is the worst thing that could happen if you do fail? The bigger question though is what could you gain?

I would like share a link to video that I watched years ago that helped me change from person who would avoid my fears to someone who stands up and walks on through it.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0HVwnOS0Wg&t=186s  

I will leave you with the challenge of watching this video and see what changes it will make in your life. What doors will it open for you?  I will look forward to hearing some of yours answers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Joining a Group

I originally started out  a member of Great Lakes Aurora Hunters, it is wonderful group and I had found a lot of good connections and information there. Unfortunately  with a membership over 30,000 seemed it was just to big,  members were scattered all over the world it was hard to connect to those in my area.  I felt also there needs to be a focus of education on safety in the dark.  So I started Michigan Aurora Hunter group, with the hope we could connect a few photographers and give them a chance to find travel buddies and mentors. Never in my wildest dreams to I think it would grow this big.  Nor had I thought we would be putting on art show, writing a magazine and putting on classes/conferences.  New things just seem to be coming up all the time.  I am really just trying to put aside my fears, jump in and just try to get it all done. I am sure I will disappoint a few along the way, since I am only one person.  Right now our biggest road block is income to hire the help that we need.  So far I have done this as a hobble but is has out grow this, and it really needs more than me to run it.  MAH states at over 1975 people as of this morning.  Though United States Dark Skies are only a few months old it is already up to 212 members.  I have had so many Wisconsin people I have moved forward plans to start their own group.

I have so many people trying to join Michigan Aurora Hunter group every day it is a bit overwhelming. We have gained over 200 members this month alone and turned away half that many because they were not eligible.  Unfortunately  Michigan Aurora Hunter group is only for Michigan residents. Though everyone is welcome on website so long as you aren’t spamming us. Our focus is to keep our Facebook groups small and localized ,  so they can discuss travel plans and work on projects together, without fear whole world is watching.  We make a huge effort to keep groups intimate, so you feel welcome and it is easy to make friends.  If you are not eligible for  Michigan Aurora Hunters, there is  Wisconsin Aurora Hunters (you must be residents of) and we have United States Dark Skies which is open to anyone and covers more than just auroras. Please only ask to join the group you are eligible for. I need all of you to understand, our moderators work really hard to double-check each profile, before we let them join groups. We do our best to keep scammers out for your safety. It wastes their time if you try to join a group you are not eligible for. So please only join the group for your area. All groups will get the information from website and we do our best to get forecasts out there if conditions look positive for activity. Our moderators try to challenge with helpful information and tutorials.  I try to do the same and well as give the Forecasts for each area.  If I stay quiet you know despite media circus and all the alerts, Lights may happen but they will not happen for your area. If I am not posting a forecast on the group daily then you know nothing much happening.

I am split between these three groups as well as managing projects for Rebel Canner group.   This fall is very busy for me as we are putting together cook book and I am working on Dark Sky Magazine we hope to launch next year.  I will apologize now if you feel neglected in any way.  I just can’t seem to master that split personality thing, or clone myself.   I really need about 6 of me to handle the load. which bring us to our fundraiser….

I will as money and time allow expand each group, and we will have one big collective conference either next spring or fall. Again, that is dependent on funds raised so we can book venue, pay speakers and all the little other things that crop up in big projects. we also need to design websites for other groups, do some maintenance on this site and be able to travel around to get advertiser and partner business for magazine and conference.  We also hope to get them to take part  in discount program with membership card. I need to hire help to carry out some of this, without funds none of this happens.   So take a look at our fundraiser, share the link on you Facebook, buy a shirt or two and help us launch these projects. They can not happen without your support.  https://www.threadscustomgear.com/p…/mi-aurora-hunters-gear/

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Bumper Stickers and Tee Shirts

We are kicking off our Bumper Stickers and Tee Shirt Sales this week thru Oct 4th.  Product will ship before Oct 20th.  If we want to move forward we need the funds to build our own Aurora app that works better for Michigan, Publish our magazine, improve our website and book the event for conferences.  So share this link with friends, think of Christmas presents and help us improve what we can do for you.

https://www.threadscustomgear.com/pride-packs/mi-aurora-hunters-gear/

We are looking forward to the journey over the next year.  May it bring exciting things for all of us.

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Sept 7th CME

Sept 7th 5:11 pm

I am going to begin with a little preview of what is in the Aurora 101 while I explain the prediction for the resent CMEs.  I am going to talk about CME since that is what we are dealing with at the moment.  CME happens within a sunspot that have polar opposite magnetic regions with in them. When these polar opposite magnetic regions compressed together in a tight pattern, they create tubes of magnetic energy that  loops out  twisting and pulling on each other.  These tubes are called filaments. They will stretch, twisting out from the sun till they reach a point they are beyond suns magnetic field. When the filament reaches it limit part of it breaks and rushes into space, while the other have reconnects creating an explosion with force of several atomic bombs.  This violently propels the CME out into space.

CME predictions are measured in two different ways. The first is by the density of plasma within a CME. A CME moves anywhere from 100  to 3000 kilometers per second. I can take anywhere from from 14 hours to 36 hours, depending on the density and force of its release.  These CME’s expand as they travel out into our solar system, they can reach immense size.  The faster moving CME’s push charge particles out in front of them, in a shock wave much like the shock wave a jet creates when it breaks the sound barrier. Because these particles and radiation are accelerated it tend to create a sudden jump in the number of protons, which we see as a jump in Plasma density.  We can this in WSA-ENLIL PREDICTION graph on http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts.

The second way we measure CME is by it’s a fast-moving  solar wind, in this case this solar wind has electrons, protons, and alpha partials. It flies out from ahead of the plasma wave which. . As solar wind leave the sun they don’t move in straight lines, they bleed out and trail behind the rotation of the sun, much like a pin wheel. Solar Winds can travel as fast as 1 million kilometers per second, reaching earth in as little as 8 minute.  Think of how winds move on earth, we have gusts and we have sustained winds.  so this type of solar wind is like a gust, rather than the sustained winds we get off coronal hole. radiation, electrons, protons and alpha particles.  This is a dense matter kind of like slime we used to play with as kids.  Within it it carries its own magnetic field.We also see the wind speed represented in the WSA-ENLIL graph, in the lower animation.  Here scientist estimate the speed in which with wind is hitting our magnetosphere.  a Kp 5 for instance will have wind speeds between 400 to 600,

We also have solar wind, and these also carry plasma and radiation, but they are not as dense and can move faster than the CME.  They can happen with a CME or they can escape from a coronal hole, which we will cover in class.     Solar winds can travel up to 1 million kilometers per second, reaching earth in as little as 8 minutes.

So lets take a look at the WSA-ENLIL.  On Sept 5th we has a solar flare about 8 am, it’s CME hit us early the morning of 6th with rather lack luster effect. This was our M class flare. Sept 6th at 11 am, we had two large M-Class flares with merge to one shock wave because faster one caught up with slower moving CME. Shock wave from that is hit us about 3 am Sept 7th.  we can see a peak in Plasma Density at this time.  meaning there was more protons and radiation in this shock wave. We had a another CME the morning of the Sept 7th at about 8 am.  The winds from this CME will begin to effect us about 5pm. This trail of the pin wheeling winds will stay with us until about 3 am the morning of Sept 9th.

It is important to remember that Scientist view time differently than we do.  So when they say 9th they generally are talking early morning hours, where as we tend to think 9th would be at the end of the day.   If you make that mistake you will miss the auroras completely and be pretty mad at yourself, trust me have done it more than few times.

So my prediction is if you are close to Copper Harbor, you may catch a break about 10 pm Sept 7th to catch the auroras, the rest of us face rain until the early morning hours.  I look for some breaks in the clouds about 2 am for lower Michigan. Keep in mind we have a very high humidly level that may cause a haze along horizon, that may prevent you from seeing auroras. That should drop off and we might have more success on Friday night.  Unless you happen to get up before the crack of dawn.

Now with anything the scientist can be wrong. They are kind of like weather men.  Since I am so hard-core at hunting I can tell you, lately take things with a grain of salt.  this year NASA put a new satellite up and accuracy of predictions are a bit off.  Nothing worse than when they call for a KP 7 and you drive half way a crossed the state and see nothing.  So really wait to get excited,  there are other factors that prediction models don’t take into account such as smoke from wild fires that drift hundreds of miles or humidity we might have.  It is frustrating when Media makes such a big deal of auroras.  They really don’t cover the reality of aurora hunting, so people understand.  This is why he have classes to help you in getting a feel for natural order of things, so you aren’t blindly following the masses.  We want to help you be successful

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9.3 X Class Flare

 

Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.”
Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.”

Yes, we did have a short lived 9.3 X Class CME.  Before you get excited lets look at the data. It is still very early.  NASA and NOAA seem to have some issues because information at this point is scanty and forecasts have not update to show activity.   How ever by observing the images you will see that this is beginning to rotate out off to the side, looking at Lasco 3 I am not seeing at this point a large halo burst at all, which means it is not a direct hit. Once sunspots move out of the magnetic field between the sun and earth they have potential of creating larger solar flares as we saw in July, that most often they miss us. This is good in the class of X class flares since they can cause major damage to power grids, Cell Towers, GPS systems and other devices that have circuit boards..  This particular sunspot still is very active and we still will have the chance if flares again in the next day or two.  None of experts I am hearing think this spot is finished.  In July we had a active region like this one that stayed organised for well over a month.

If you look at the grey image you will see bright red and blue spots tightly intertwined. The red represents the positive magnetic charge and Blue the negative magnetic charge.  When they are so closely bound together it creates the magnetic field loops from positive and negative regions within the sunspot.  to Simplify this, the strong active regions create the solar loops that can twist, snap and reconnect. When they do, solar flares and CME can happen.  The solar wind can reach us in as little as 8 minutes, while the plasma burst of CME that carries highly charge partials can take 18 hours to several days to reach us.  So if we were to have an effect from this  X class flare, I would look for it to hit Thursday possibly into Friday morning.

From my sources I am getting guesses that the wind from this flare might further enhance storm tonight.  If this flare was aimed directly to at us it will take a couple of days for the plasma to reach us. Please note   What does look absolute is we will have activity starting about 2 pm  today through 7 pm Sept 7.  The peak time should hit between 8 pm thru 2 am tonight.  Then it should dissipate to lower KP 4 through the 8th.  Now once NASA and NOAA update data, I expect this will alter the forecast some.  I do not expect a direct hit, but we likely will glancing blow.  Please note here I using Eastern Standard time  Graphs and charts will use Universal standard time which is 4 hours head of our time this time of year.  So you need to subtract 4 hours to know what time in our time.  also note once we hit day light savings this will become 5 hours.

If you have heart issues or migraine issues you might wanted to have medications handy to prepare for this.  This kind of disruption can cause health issues.  This storm was about 10 points below what would wipe out power grids but you still may find some radio and electrical disturbances and you cell phone might have disrupted service.  So breathe easy not a Kill Shot and likely will make for a good play time

Now for the bad news.  The best place for viewing will be west of the straits along US 2.  There is expected 50-60% cloud coverage. There rest of the state is expected 70% cloud coverage increasing toward morning.  Now, before you give up, it pays to go look.  Sometimes you can get breaks in the clouds or the lights might glow through the clouds.  I have had some success on cloud nights and they can make great shots.  So look at your weather maps well ahead of time to see where there might be slightly clear skies.  Sometimes it can be a matter of driving two miles to get the view you want.  I live in Traverse and I have had nights it was raining on East Bay and drove over to West bay had breaks in the Clouds and no rain.  There is new app out called Storm Radar that is looking pretty good for long term forecasting.  For our United State Dark Sky Members  a KP 7 should be visible if you are north of Chicago-Detroit line.  It doesn’t look good for New England States if you are in eastern Dakotas or Northern Montana you will have the best view.  Wisconsin and Minnesota will be partially cloudy with a system dropping down from Canada that has massive cloud cover.

 

Update: NOAA just released updated projections and we are are expected to be between KP 4 and KP 7 until late morning on Sept 9th.  This Sun Spot is still active so please expect updates as they become available.

 If you are trying to join Facebook group, please note Michigan Aurora Hunter is only for Michigan Residents.  We are double checking profiles so expect a verification message from us.  You must respond or we will delete your request. If you are not a Michigan resident please join United States Dark Skies.  We run both. MAH is kept closed to non residents for safety.  We take safety very seriously and our members matter to us.

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M-Class Solar Eruption

We have experienced on going solar flares this last week has accounted for rise in KP levels.  The big news however is the M-class CME that erupted from Sunspot on southern arm last night.  NOAA predicts this will hit us about 4 pm eastern time Wednesday Sept 6th.  It is predicted to have KP 5 to KP 6  Wednesday into Thursday morning.  Some Experts feel this is not the end of the activity from this spot since it is we well-formed Beta Gama Delta classified Sun Spot.  To simplify the terms of this classification, it basically means that there are strong positive and negative magnetic fields packed tightly together. These create tubes of solar gases and plasma that loop up off the surface of the sun, and reconnect with the opposite energy.  Because the negative and positive are so tightly entwined, it becomes impossible to distinguish between the positive and negative magnetic energy , which ads the Gama classification. This type of sunspot is capable of producing strong CME.   Good news for aurora hunters.

If you would like to learn more about the sun and aurora please join us Sept 16th for our aurora hunting class.  We will be covering all the scientific processes, terminology, charts and apps, to help you gain an understanding of when the auroras will be.  we all will be covering camera basic such as camera settings, how to use your camera and basic composition to help you improve you photography.  We will end the class with a hands on night shoot.  Sept 17th class will cover teaching basic Lightroom and Photoshop.  You can sign up for classes in shop are of our website.  Sign up Deadline is Sept 8th.  We look forward to seeing you in class.

I will finish with we have less than stellar weather to combat and it might not clear till early Thursday morning.  We have experienced some smoke from western fires that drifts low on the horizon that may interfere with seeing auroras.  Cheer up people winters coming and close to fire season.  I will keep you up dated with periodic updates at things progress, so stay tuned.  If you are new to us please to read through some of our site it is designed to help you experience and see the northern lights.

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What is coming in September !

What is coming in September?   September 15th Oct 4th we are holding our first Fundraiser.  There is a line of Tee Shirts, Sweatshirts, Baseball Cap and Bumper Stickers.  Be aware all product ordered will ship within two weeks of the close of fundraiser.   All the funds from this will go to up grade website so it is more functional, Start online shop for those of you that want to sell photos, start magazine, and get ready for the conference.  So share the links for the shop, encourage friends to support us.

Glen Haven Narrows
by Peggy Sue Zinn

Don’t forget to order your bumper sticker.  This is a safety thing for our members.  Bumper Stickers are to be placed on driver’s side rear bumper, so that when you pull in at night you can find if there are other members there.  It always helps to know you have a friend in the dark.

September 16 & 17th We are having classes in Traverse City.  If you are

with your camera settings, if you not quite sure how to do night photography or are you completely confused by all the scientific charts and apps.  Then September 16th is the Class you want to take!  It will be a comprehensive look at the science of the sun and what causes auroras.  In that class we will cover how to read the different charts and applications, so you have a complete idea of when you should expect to see the auroras.  We will talk about safety in the dark.  We will also talk your camera, and help you understand how you can use your camera settings to achieve the best results.  We will end the day with a hands on field trip so you can shoot the night sky.  September 17th  We will bring your shots into the class room and working on editing, using LIghtroom and Photoshop. This is excellent class for you if you don’t understand editing programs.  We will cover the basic modules in Lightroom and Bridge, than transport it over to Photoshop and show you how to do some simple layering.  It is our goal to help you walk away with some great shots and the knowledge on how to create more.  With this class comes continued online support to help with questions.   Deadline for enrollment is September 8th so book your spot today by visiting our store today!! http://www.michiganaurorahunters.com/shop/  and add your class to cart.

Kid age 10 and up are welcome at special price.  Contact me privately if baby sitter is needed.

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August 24th News

August 24th News starts with the very minimal aurora activity for the next few days.  There seems to be little solar wind and no plasma coming off the magnetic field connection with in the solar sunspots.  We have been seeing short lived spike of higher KP value the last few days, but that will slowly dissipate over the next three days.  We expect that around the 27th of August we will begin to see a gradual increase in activity, with the 27 day forecast calling for KP5 for 31st.   The bigger story will be the Middle of September when it is predicted to have several day of Kp 5.  Hopefully with this cooler weather and dropping humidity levels will mean we have better chances to view the lights.

We will be holding an Aurora Class Sept 16 &17 at Old Library on 6th St in Traverse City.  Whether you are newbie, intermediate photographer you will find helpful information.  Sept 16th is part lecture and part workshop.  We will begin the day with lecture to help you understand the sun’s processes and how that creates the northern lights.  We will keep this basic and simple, so you gain a grasp of process and terminology.  This will help you be able to follow data streams yourself and know what data is telling you.  We will cover how to read charts and data streams. discussions will cover what applications to use in your phone to help you and what parameters you need to see lights in Michigan.   We also cover Cameras, how to set settings and what settings to use in night photography.  We will cover a little about basic composition to help improve your skills.   After Dinner break we are going to do a hands on workshop where we shoot on location so you gain practical experience, and keep the information you learned.  On Sunday Sept 17th we will have a basic LIghtroom and Photoshop Class to help you learn how to edit the photos you take.  It is helpful if you bring a laptop with Adobe and any camera software pre-loaded on computer.  If you need help will be available before class to help you.  If you do not have a laptop and don’t want to bring desk top, you can still take the class. We will pair you with some one who has computer so you can follow along.  We hope by the end of the session you will feel confident in new skills and that you walk away with photos you can be proud of.   Enrollment open til Sept 4th.

Update on Photography Talk.  Spoke with Alex today, and in September a special code for will be released for special deal to Michigan Aurora Hunting Members only.  The first 150 people to use the special code and sign up with Photography Talk, will not only receive access to not only the great articles, 20 hours worth of interviews with top professional photographers, contests, photo sharing and 40 hours of Lightroom and Photoshop training, but you will also get a Night Photography course valued at $149.00.  This also gives you a chance to have your artwork featured internationally in photo of the day.   So start saving your pennies,  or hit those loved ones up with your Christmas wish, you will want not want to miss out on this!

I also want to thank Alex of Photography talk, for believing in our members and what this group is doing so much , not only is he giving the free Night Class but he is also reinvesting in our group.  A portion of every membership sale will come back to MAH, so that we can improve website design and add more content for you.  It is very expensive to build a website and maintain it, this will allow us to expand to dedicated private server to increase space and speed of what we have to offer.  It will also allow us to come up with better forums, and spaces for contest. We also hope to move a head a head with sales site, we have worked out deals with Camera shop and Wooden gallery to do our production work.  Experienced photographers who are building reputation will be able to have own page, and new photographer who might only have one or two photos to sell can sell from a main gallery.

 

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Week of August 6, 2017

Week beginning August 6, 2017 sees the sunspot activity quieting.  There is some  filament activity within the sunspot but at this time it is not strong enough to break the magnetic pull of the sun. Solar winds were faster over the weekend, which accounts for higher KP values we are seeing. As we get into Monday morning these winds will decrease.  Forecasts at this time don’t look good for further CME’s this month, that being said, eruption tend to come without warning.  There is a set of coronal holes rotating into view this week, and they are expected to produce better environment for seeing northern lights during the later part of the week.  WSA-ENLIL projections see solar winds dropping as we go into the 7th, but on August 9 they are predicting a rise in plasma and increase in wind speeds that should raise our KP levels again.  Both the Sunspot and Coronal holes will be aimed at earth through August 19th.  27 day forecast predicts KP5 for August 17 & 18th, with a few days of elevated but not strong KP values in the following days.

While we are in a solar minimum it does not mean we will have no solar activity.  It is entirely possible to see stronger solar flares during a minimum, as it is in peak solar maximum years.  Solar minimum looks at the overall activity on the surface of the sun as well as positions of coronal holes over the entire year. In a solar minimum coronal holes start migrating toward the north and south pole of the sun, they begin to be come larger and last longer.  The magnetic effects between sun and earth become lower key, earths magnetosphere will contract.  Interesting note to that, is NASA released a study this month, that sited this contraction of our magnetosphere as what causes space junk to orbit earth in greater qualities.   At some point the poles reverse their magnetic energy on the sun and we begin to journey out of the minimum and into maximum.  As the poles reverse it begins to push coronal holes back toward the equator of the sun, and the life span of coronal holes will again shorten. Scientist are predicting that we should reach a point of least activity somewhere around 2020.

We do have the Perseid Meteor showers this month, and these are predicted to be at their peak later next weekend on August 12th and will be view-able for a week or so after that.  You can expect to see meteor of around 80 per hour and it is possible to reach frequency 200 in hour as in 2016.  If you watch the Lasco C3, you will get a grand view of meteor showers as viewed by satellites.  Now many of you have asked in the past how to tell if it is meteor, space station or airplane.   If the trail of item is broken in a sort of dash, dash, dash pattern, then it is an airplane.  If trail is solid it is likely meteor and if it is very bright with a line, diamond, line pattern it is space station.  Google play store has app called ISS Detector that will give you times and area of the sky to watch for Iss space station. For those looking for a tool to help you figure out  proper exposures for shooting stars, Milky Way and Auroras, so you don’t blur your stars  you might want to try the App 600 rule. This will allow you to set the maximum shutter speed to avoid blurring stars, based on your sensor and focal length of your lens. For our newbies, I suggested some in depth reading on this site as there is several places you can find information on how to help you begin shooting the night skies.  Don’t forget to read Aurora Hunting Guidelines, it will help you with how to shoot as well as help you understand how to be considerate night photographer.  There will likely be many people enjoying night skies this month, remember to treat each other as you want to be treated.

Hope this helps you all enjoy the night skies this week and I will look forward to seeing some great images from you

 

 

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August 2, 2017 Solar Activity

August 2,  sees the sunspot region 2670 has rotated a little further into view and has produced some B class flares none of which has been directed at earth. Over the next week this will start to rotate into a place to where it can affect earth. Some further Minor activity was noted beyond the 2670 region, but is still toward back side of sun, and will not affect earth.  As region 2670 rotates into view, it seems to be quieting due to change in Magnetic energy. Whether it will deteriorate or where it is just taking a rest is yet unknown.  Solar winds from the coronal hole, which is now earth facing has quieted also, though we will see slight elevation in KP numbers in few days from activity on August 1.

As you can see from the above chart we should have a small period where plasma will be aimed at earth. Predicted to hit on the Aug 4th and into Aug 5th.  This period will be brief and at this time, KP values for 4th are not predicted over a 2.  Three day forecast has not been published for 5th yet. This all being said, are just predictions. sometimes they come in above or below what scientist think it will be at any given time. Mother Nature doesn’t operate on the whims of man, unfortunately or we would have a much easier time of this.

Please remember that this is on UTC time.  UTC is  Universal Time Standard, in summer for majority of Michigan means it is  4 hours ahead of Eastern standard Time. So you will need to subtract 4 hours (5 during daylight savings) to accurately read charts put out by NOAA seen in below link.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts

The 27 day forecast has predictions up for the 17-19th for possible G1 level event with it down grading over following few days. Keep in mind these long-term forecast are based on coronal holes, which are fairly predictable in their patterns. A Coronal hole is a weak area in the Corona that allows solar winds to escape at moderate levels.  The sun operates on 28 day cycle, to make a full rotation.  As long as that particular hole exists it will rotate around to earth at about the same time every month.  Usually these cause low-level aurora events. What is not predictable is Solar flares or CME, these tend to come from sunspots, which are often found around the edges of a coronal hole.   The winds of solar flare or CME can hit us in as little as 8 minutes, while plasma can take up to 18 hours to cross space to us.  As these events are rather unpredictable they tend to crop up rather suddenly and with little warning.  With region 2670 being active and soon be can affect earth, it would be a good idea until this sunspot disappears completely to keep your gear in constant state of readiness.  Make sure your Aurora Alert app or Aurora Notifier App are correctly set to give you alarms should something pop off.  We have a chance this month, as this has been a really active sunspot of seeing something. All we can do is wait and pray it does become active.

 

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